Student Enrollment Declines in District 95

Student enrollment will continue to decline gradually over the next five years in Community Unit School District 95 schools, following a trend over the past 10 years.

This was the conclusion of a demographic study update presented by Sarah Kemp, an associate researcher from the University of Wisconsin, Madison Applied Population Laboratory. Kemp presented her findings at the Committee of the Whole school board meeting last week.

"While in past studies some grades experienced an increase in student enrollment while others declined, all models in the district are projected to decline from kindergarten through the 12th grade over the next five years," said Kemp.

The projection process uses a combination of historical enrollment data, housing construction and turnover data, and population trends and projections to create logical estimates regarding future growth scenarios and the anticipated impact on the school district.

Looking at the 2009 projections for student enrollment for the 2009-10 and 2010-11 school years, the study noted that enrollment for both years was slightly over-projected.

For instance, the baseline projection in 2009 for the 2009-10 school year was 6,189. The actual enrollment for that year was 6,164, a shortfall of 25 students. The 2010-11 school year saw a baseline projection of 6,069 students, while the actual enrollment was 6,023, a shortfall of 46 students.

The study revealed that projection models slightly over-projected student enrollment for grades kindergarten through five and six through eight, while slightly under-projecting high school enrollment, an indication that grades kindergarten through eight declined more than expected, but all high school grades less than expected.

The study uses some empirical data based on tracking the last ten years of enrollment history. District 95 has experienced a decline in overall student enrollment over the last decade, from 6,325 students in the 2001-2 school year to 6,023 students in the 2010-11 school year. This is a decline of 302 students, an almost 5% overall decrease, or 0.5  percent annually, in total enrollment.

While several different grade groupings actually showed modest increases in student enrollment over the previous  five- or 10-year periods, the five-year forecast for all groupings indicates a decrease in enrollment.

"I always caution districts not to project beyond a five-year period," said Kemp, responding to board member Doug Golberg's query regarding longer-term forecasts. "Once you go beyond that, there can be a number of things that come into play that you cannot forecast."

Elementary school enrollment has decreased 2 percent annually over the past 10 years, according to study results. Middle school enrollment in the first five years increased 0.3 percent annually, but decreased by the same amount over the past five years. Only high school showed a consistent increase, up 2.4 percent over the past 10 years.

Trends in kindergarten enrollment are a key predictor of future district enrollment, as present kindergartners will eventually move up through grades one through 12, study results show. With the gradual decrease in kindergarten enrollment over the past decade, higher grades have also experienced a commensurate decrease as well. This trend is expected to continue unabated.

The study also used projected birth data to forecast how many students will enroll in District 95 schools in the future, with resident births being counted in the villages of Deer Park, Hawthorn Woods, Kildeer and Lake Zurich.

Based on data collected over the past 10 years, annual birth rates have for the most part been declining over the past 10 years. While birth rates in the district spiked to 527 in 1993, they’ve been declining ever since, dipping to 333 in 2008, the last year data is available. Kemp said that the recession and ongoing downturn in the economy is a major factor in families putting off having children.

Another contributing factor in a decline in student enrollment is a slowing population growth in the district, as well as a gradual decline in new home construction every year since 2004.

"How do falling real estate values factor in to the equation?" asked Tony Pietro, board member.

"I didn't look closely at foreclosure rates," said Kemp. "But changes in the housing market could certainly be a factor in student enrollment decline."

The complete study is available  www.lz95.org/district_95_demographic_study_released